US Energy Secretary Chris Wright’s claims that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have returned to pre-war levels are at odds with observable shipping data and the physical limits of regional export infrastructure, according to CNN analysis.
Wright said Tuesday that Middle Eastern oil exports had risen above pre-war levels on Sunday and remained near normal for about a week, attributing the recovery to US-coordinated efforts with Gulf allies and the use of alternative pipelines and export routes.
Thanks to the coordinated efforts of the U.S. military and our gulf allies, the seven-day average for oil leaving the Strait of Hormuz is currently up to almost 9 million barrels per day.
— Secretary Chris Wright (@SecretaryWright) August 11, 2026
When combined with the additional 5-7 million barrels per day leaving the region via newly…
However, data from Kpler, a shipping and oil-market intelligence firm, showed that just 84 vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz last week, including only nine on Sunday, compared with more than 100 daily crossings before the war, according to CNN analysis by David Goldman.
“It is not possible to reconcile the disparity between what we see and what he is quoting,” Matt Smith, Kpler’s director of commodity research, told CNN.
JPMorgan estimates that roughly 4 million barrels of oil per day are currently getting through the strait—far below Wright’s claim of 9 million barrels per day. On Monday, just six vessels transited the waterway, according to oil analyst Andy Lipow, and none were crude tankers.
CNN’s Goldman noted that Wright’s claim that 5 million to 7 million barrels per day are bypassing the strait through pipelines appears more credible. Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline alone has been rerouting more than 5 million barrels per day toward the Red Sea, while regional producers have largely maxed out available pipeline capacity.
Dan Pickering, founder and chief investment officer of Pickering Energy Partners, said the US government should theoretically have highly reliable data on oil flows but questioned the administration’s figures.
“The administration is really trying to jawbone oil prices to the downside.”
The discrepancy has also drawn criticism from Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, who said: “We are nowhere near normal.”
Goldman said the recent recovery in shipping traffic is difficult to sustain because commercial vessels remain reluctant to enter the strait while facing the threat of attack. He also noted that some Middle Eastern oil is being transported by shadow-fleet vessels that disable transponders or sail under false flags, making the true volume of exports difficult to establish.
Of the 84 vessels that crossed Hormuz last week, Kpler identified 17 as shadow-fleet crossings, while 10 were carrying sanctioned cargo. CNN said it remains unclear whether Wright included those shipments in his calculations.
Source: CNN (edited by Al-Manar English Website)