Tuesday, 18/08/2026   
   Beirut 15:44

Israeli Security Establishment Warns of Full Blown Civil War after Knesset Elections in Light of Likud Primaries

Israeli Knesset session in an image from archive.

The Israeli media highlighted the repercussions of the primary Likud vote as a main indicator of the Knesset elections set to be held on October 27, 2026,

According to the official Likud results board, the voter turnout in the party primaries was 53.6%, with 76,111 voters casting their ballots out of 142,051 eligible voters. Although the final results have not yet been announced, counting more than three-quarters of the ballots has revealed clear trends: Eli Cohen is widening his lead, there is a fierce and unusual competition between Amir Ohana and Yariv Levin, Almog Cohen is making a major upset, and several current ministers are far from the “realistic representation” line (the guaranteed seats).

Eli Cohen is leading with 41,988 votes and is emerging at this stage as the biggest winner in the primaries. This was followed by a very close race, with Amir Ohana rising to second place with 38,631 votes, ahead of Yariv Levin, who came in third with 37,473 votes (after their positions were reversed in the early stages of the count).

The fourth was Miri Regev with 34,118 votes, firmly establishing her position as the “first woman” in Likud. She was followed by Ofir Katz with 31,676 votes, a remarkable result for the coalition chairman that placed him above ministers and senior officials more senior than him, then Yoav Kisch with 29,906 votes, and Miki Zohar with 29,696 votes.

One of the most notable results of the night was the performance of Knesset Member Almog Cohen. The MK who moved from the Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power) party, benefiting from accelerated seniority and public support from Prime Minister Netanyahu, came in eighth place with 25,977 votes, ahead of a long list of veteran and senior members.

He was followed by Amichai Shekli with 25,413 votes, surpassing Dudi Amsalem, who received 25,025 votes. Shekli, who ran without a large organizational machine and had previously warned of the power of “backroom deals,” managed to maintain a high ranking so far thanks to the support of “independent voters.”

In eleventh and twelfth place were Moshe Saad and Tali Gottlieb, respectively. Gottlieb entered the race as one of the “mysteries” of this election, relying heavily on independent votes. Despite achieving a strong position, she is still far from the top spot some pre-election projections placed her in.

In her first reaction to the results, Gottlieb launched a scathing attack, saying: “Even if the Prime Minister’s entourage made a real effort to frustrate and weaken me, even if all the votes secured through backroom deals were instructed not to vote for me, even if I was the only one who didn’t receive a message of support from the Prime Minister, the right-wing Likud voters fought for me with tremendous strength. There are no people as loyal as you, no people as wise and intelligent as you!”

Amid this internal turmoil, the Israeli newspaper Maariv revealed extensive preparations by the Israeli security establishment to confront extreme scenarios that could escalate to full-blown civil war following the announcement of the upcoming election results. The newspaper indicated serious concerns that some parties might refuse to accept the results, coinciding with television channels promoting narratives of “election fraud,” in a tense atmosphere with the presence of “tens of thousands of armed citizens.”

Security circles fear that the American scenario that followed the presidential elections between Joe Biden and Donald Trump will be repeated in ‘Israel’, where fears are rising that political and partisan disputes will turn into violent confrontations in the streets, especially in light of the extreme polarization and deep divisions that Israeli society is experiencing.

Source: Websites