Israeli Middle East affairs writer Zvi Bar’el examined what he described as the contours—and gaps—of Israel’s emerging security strategy under Benjamin Netanyahu, warning that ‘Israel’ could soon face a coherent US approach in Syria and Lebanon without a clear strategy of its own.
Writing in Haaretz, Bar’el cited Netanyahu’s remarks at a graduation ceremony for Israeli officers, where the Israeli premier said Hamas would soon be forced to disarm and that Gaza would no longer pose a threat. Netanyahu also stressed that establishing buffer or demilitarized zones along the borders was “a necessary security requirement,” indicating Israeli forces would remain in such zones in Lebanon and Syria.
Bar’el questioned how and when Hamas’s disarmament would be implemented, and how this aligns with Donald Trump’s plans to rebuild Gaza and deploy a Palestinian police force in the Strip.
He further asked “how to reconcile Israel’s continued presence in buffer zones within Syria and Lebanon with the US desire to support the Syrian government under Ahmed Al-Sharaa in extending its sovereignty, alongside efforts to disarm Hezbollah and stabilize Lebanon.”
Bar’el concluded that “Israel, as in Gaza, does not have a clear strategy in Syria and Lebanon, and may find itself facing a different American approach.”
He added that Turkey has no intention of withdrawing from Syria, “placing Ankara and Tel Aviv in competition for influence,” as the Syrian president enjoys US backing.
The writer also highlighted a recent agreement with Kurdish forces in northern Syria, providing for their gradual integration into the Syrian army and state institutions. He argued this “undermines the strategy that Israel has sought to advance since the fall of Bashar Al-Assad’s regime in December 2024,” which relied on supporting local minority entities as tools of influence and buffers against perceived threats.
Bar’el warned that US support for a unified Syrian state “may pressure Israel to withdraw from territories seized after December 2024 and return to the 1974 separation lines with certain modifications,” noting that security talks between Syria and ‘Israel’ remain frozen.
He added that Tel Aviv’s focus on a potential war with Iran may temporarily sideline Syria, but cautioned: “In the event of a war and its end, the Syrian and Lebanese arenas will remain—necessitating a realistic roadmap to address ongoing threats, particularly those hindering displaced Israelis from returning home.”
Source: Hebrew media (translated and edited by Al-Manar)