A new analysis by the Foreign Affairs warns that the Gulf region has entered an “untenable” security phase in the wake of the US-Israeli war on Iran, arguing that the longstanding American military presence, once viewed as a shield, has increasingly become a source of vulnerability for Gulf states.
According to the report by David B. Roberts, Associate Professor of Middle East Studies at King’s College London: “A century of outsourced Gulf security is over. Time for the monarchies to stop waiting on Washington and shape an outcome themselves – with US withdrawal on the table as leverage to bind Iran.”
He argues that US bases spread across the region now act as potential flashpoints, exposing critical infrastructure, energy facilities, and even civilian sites to retaliatory attacks. Rather than deterring conflict, their presence risks drawing Gulf countries directly into escalation scenarios beyond their control.
Instead of waiting for the United States to achieve a settlement with Iran that serves the Gulf, the monarchies should build their own security, argues @thegulfblog. “This requires the Gulf states to deal with Iran themselves.” https://t.co/UaiIUdRkqJ
— Foreign Affairs (@ForeignAffairs) May 18, 2026
Despite assessments of an alleged relative decline in Iran’s military capacity, the analysis stresses that Tehran retains sufficient capabilities to threaten regional stability, including influence over the Strait of Hormuz, a vital corridor for global energy supplies.
In this context, Gulf states are seen as bearing the highest cost, whether through continued confrontation or through potential US-Iran arrangements that sideline their interests, according to Roberts.
The British scholar urges Gulf leaders to abandon decades-old assumptions that security can be outsourced to foreign powers, calling instead for a fundamental shift toward a regionally driven security framework. It argues that lasting stability depends on direct engagement with Iran and the construction of a new order rooted in local balance rather than external military guarantees.
Central to this vision, Roberts notes, is a comprehensive regional agreement that would include the gradual withdrawal of US forces from Gulf bases, paired with reciprocal commitments from Iran, such as curbing its nuclear and missile programs and easing regional tensions.
Such a move should not be seen as a retreat, but as a strategic recalibration that could reduce one of the core drivers of confrontation, Roberts adds.
He frames this potential shift as a “Gulf Westphalian moment,” invoking the idea of a self-regulated regional system based on sovereignty and mutual arrangements, free from external dominance.
At the same time, the British academic underscores that political agreements alone are insufficient. “Gulf states must invest in rebuilding their own military capabilities after decades of reliance on foreign protection, developing credible defense strategies tailored to regional realities, particularly in securing maritime routes critical to their economies.”
Historical precedents cited in the report highlight the risks of dependence on outside powers, noting repeated instances where global allies prioritized their own interests over those of regional partners. These patterns, it argues, reinforce the urgency of a strategic pivot.
Ultimately, Roberts concludes that the continued reliance on US military infrastructure is no longer sustainable. For Gulf states, the path forward lies in reducing external dependency, redefining regional relations, and constructing a security architecture that reflects their own priorities rather than those of distant powers.
Source: Foreign Affairs (edited by Al-Manar)