The US-Israeli war on Iran has triggered transformations that extend far beyond the battlefields, threatening to reshape the balance of power in the Middle East and the world—ranging from the potential expansion of Chinese military influence and Israel’s adoption of a permanent border war strategy, to strengthening Tehran’s capacity to threaten its adversaries despite the losses it has sustained.
In an article for Foreign Policy magazine, Kenneth Pollack—deputy director of policy at the Middle East Institute—stated that the war on Iran could constitute a historical turning point that redraws the rules of geopolitics, warning that its long-term strategic consequences might be more dangerous than its immediate military ramifications.
According to the author, a former military analyst at the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the war demonstrated the effectiveness of Western defense systems in intercepting most Iranian missiles and drones; however, the leakage of a limited percentage of them was sufficient to inflict significant damage and provoke economic and psychological anxiety in Gulf states.
Pollack believes that intercepting about 90% of the attacks does not provide sufficient protection, because the remaining damage threatens the energy, trade, investment, and tourism sectors, and undermines the Gulf’s image as a safe haven for business and stability.
Having discovered the limitations of relying on American and Israeli protection, countries in the region have begun purchasing Turkish drones, while others seek to develop their production capabilities in cooperation with American, Israeli, Chinese, and Ukrainian companies.
China and Military Power
On the other hand, the author noted that the war exposed the limitations of China’s ability to protect its interests and partners in the region, despite its heavy reliance on Gulf oil—which provides up to half of its oil imports—and its bilateral trade with regional nations exceeding $500 billion annually.
Pollack raises the possibility that these developments may prompt China to enhance its capability to project military power in the Gulf and the Arabian Sea, leveraging its expanding naval fleet and aircraft carriers.
Should this shift materialize, it would alter the military balance and security relations in the region, placing Washington before a new competitor in a domain it has dominated for decades.
“Israel” and Permanent Wars
In a potential development, the author expects “Israel” to adopt a strategy based on establishing buffer zones in the Gaza Strip, Lebanon, and Syria, alongside conducting continuous military operations to prevent its adversaries from building capabilities that threaten its security.
The author compares this approach to the strategy of the Roman Empire, which relied on buffer zones and wars beyond its borders to ensure internal stability.
However, this strategy requires long-term military and societal mobilization, which could strain the Israeli economy and harm the technology sector, which relies on global openness.
Continuous operations also threaten to widen Israel’s isolation and deepen rifts with the United States, where criticism of the alliance between the two countries is growing.
Iran May Emerge Stronger
Inside Iran, the author does not rule out the possibility that the war could strengthen Tehran’s influence rather than undermine it, after learning that threatening the Strait of Hormuz and targeting Washington’s allies can impose a heavy economic and psychological cost on all parties.
On another front, Pollack believes that the rise of those he describes as “hardliners” could make reaching a nuclear deal more difficult, especially if they become convinced that possessing nuclear weapons is the only way to prevent future attacks.
The author points out that Russian and Chinese support may help Iran rebuild and improve its arsenal. Therefore, ending the war without deterring its ability to disrupt navigation and threaten the Gulf could make it even more influential regionally and internationally, despite its military losses.
Source: Websites