A recent opinion article in The Guardian argues that the US-Israeli war on Iran marks a potential turning point in Europe’s relationship with Washington, particularly under President Donald Trump, as European states reassess their dependence on the United States and move toward greater strategic autonomy.
In the commentary, published by The Guardian’s Nathalie Tocci says that the US president’s “cry-wolf threats are losing their effect while European leaders are, at last, shifting from sycophancy to opposition.”
She describes European governments as being on what she calls “a journey” of emancipation from Washington, accelerated by successive geopolitical crises including the war in Ukraine, tensions over Greenland, and the conflict in the Middle East.
The author writes that “initially, most European politicians in power all but endorsed the illegal US and Israeli attack against Iran,” reflecting what she portrays as an early phase of alignment driven by transatlantic loyalty and hostility toward Tehran.
However, Tocci argues that this position has since shifted as the war escalated and its wider consequences became clearer, with European governments increasingly distancing themselves—quietly in some cases, more explicitly in others—from Washington’s approach.
The commentary highlights several examples of policy divergence, including Italy’s refusal to allow US warplanes access to a base in Sicily, France’s rejection of overflight rights and its opposition to a US-backed UN resolution on Iran, and Poland’s refusal to deploy air defence systems to the Middle East, citing threats from Russia.
Spain is presented as part of this broader shift, with Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez previously banning the use of jointly operated bases for operations linked to the war and later welcoming a conditional ceasefire while calling for “a lasting and just peace.”
BREAKING : Spanish PM 🇪🇸 Pedro Sánchez gave SHOCK to Trump with his courage 🔥
— Amock_ (@Amockx2022) April 9, 2026
🇺🇸 Trump at 10 AM –– "We are going to withdraw support from NATO nations which didn't help me against Iran"
🇪🇸 Pedro at 10 PM –– "We are going to reopen Spanish embassy in Tehran, Iran 🇮🇷 to help… pic.twitter.com/A370wndyTt
Tocci argues that the conflict has also exposed wider strategic costs for Europe, including gains for Russia through higher oil revenues and pressure on Western military resources tied to support for Ukraine.
She adds that European leaders’ perception of Trump has changed significantly, writing that they have moved from seeing him as “daddy” to “baddie,” reflecting what she describes as a sharp decline in political deference toward Washington.
The commentary also notes that even far-right parties in Europe are beginning to distance themselves from Trump-aligned positions due to domestic political pressures.
Tocci concludes that Europe’s shifting posture could open the way for a more independent diplomatic role, reviving multilateral approaches to regional crises and potentially reshaping future negotiations on Iran’s nuclear file and wider Middle East security arrangements.
She adds that Europe’s evolving stance reflects not only normative commitments to multilateralism, but also “hard-nosed interests” as European governments reassess the costs of alignment with US-led military escalation.
Source: The Guardian (edited by Al-Manar)